Stochastic Techno-Economic Analysis of Sustainable Aviation Fuels from Purpose-Grown Energy Crops in the Central United States

 

2024 USDA-NIFA Competitive Research Support Award

Principal Investigators and affiliations:

PI: Dr. Jason Quinn, Colorado State University

Graduate Student: Smith Pittman

Funded: $53,400

Start Date: 7/1/2024

End Date: 6/30/2025

 

Project Goal

To conduct a comprehensive financial risk assessment for potential sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) producers in the South Central Region of the US, with a focus on the cultivation of purpose-grown crops.

 

Objectives

1. To develop and apply a modeling framework that evaluates the financial risks associated with cultivation of purpose-grown crops and their conversion to SAF.
2. To compare the impacts of weather- and non-weather-related uncertainty in financial risk profiles of SAF produced from purpose-grown crops in the South Central Region. 

 

Expected Project Outcomes

1. Integration of stochastic weather and price simulators with crop modeling and TEA, which will allow us to determine probabilistic financial risks and revenue variability in SAF production.
2. Identification of SAF pathways with minimal revenue volatility and risk exposure.
3. Foundations for studies focused on managing weather and market-based risks through the implementation of financial instruments or weather-indexed insurance.
4. By robustly analyzing financial risks associated with renewable jet fuel production, the work will contribute to the broader goal of scaling the production and utilization of SAF with the development of a valuable rural SAF industry in the South Central Region of the US.